Rebar production continues to grow, and the steel market's phased supply and demand imbalance.

The high stock of steel, especially the high stock of rebar, has been the focus of market attention in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the high point of rebar inventories appeared in mid-March, reaching 21.7689 million tons per day. It then experienced a three-month rapid destocking phase, from mid-March to mid-June, with an average weekly destocking of 870,000 tons. In the same period in 2018 and 2019, the destocking rate was 590,000 tons/week and 360,000 tons/week, only 68% and 41% of this year, which shows that the demand in the second quarter of this year is better.

Starting from late June, with the arrival of high temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of domestic construction sites has slowed down, and flood disasters have occurred in many southern provinces this year, which may affect the construction more than in previous years. At present, the market has not ushered in the off-season situation. The rebar and the five major steel varieties have re-increased the total inventory, and the increase rate is increasing rapidly.

The activity of traders is fair, and the overall circulation situation may be better than in previous years.

The daily transaction status of the distributors represents the degree of participation of intermediaries, and reflects the market participation fever and traders' mentality from the side. Taking the 5-day average of the rebar trading volume of 237 distributors as an example, it reached more than 250,000 tons per day in mid-April, mid-May and early June. Among them, the single-day trading volume on individual dates exceeded 300,000 tons, setting a historical record. As of July 13, the average trading volume on the 5th was 240,000 tons/day. This fully shows that the policy of resuming production and resuming production in the second quarter superimposed the situation of catching up downstream in the post-epidemic era in the country, resulting in an unusually hot market.

The production of steel mills is mainly affected by two factors, one is policy and the other is profit.

In terms of policy, at the beginning of this year, the government introduced policies to encourage resumption of production, job security, and steady growth; in the second half of the year, profits will be the decisive factor.

Long after the callback or "buy ten sell one" positive arbitrage is worth looking forward to. Based on the above analysis, the fundamentals of rebar have shifted from the previous supply and demand to the phased supply oversupply, high inventory and high output make the price under pressure, easy in the summer phase Difficult to rise. But job security, steady growth policies and follow-up work have made the "golden nine silver ten" more worth looking forward to than in previous years. At present, the rebar October contract has reached a new high in a warm market atmosphere. If you have already held multiple orders, you can continue to hold or close the position to cash in on the rallies; if there is no position, it is not recommended to chase more, and it is recommended to consider the callback Rising kinetic energy. In addition, if there is no effective callback in the October contract in the summer, in order to reduce the risk of trading, the positive arbitrage of the "buy ten sell one" contract for rebar is also an effective trading strategy.